At least one legislator and several caucus-backed candidates appear in danger of losing their re-election bids after initial vote tallies were reported for Nevada’s mostly-mail primary election.
An election night plagued by long lines and lengthy wait times for results nonetheless gave a clear view Wednesday morning as to the potential makeup of the 2021 Legislature, owing to the substantial number of races that will be decided in the primary.
The election results will determine the office-holder in four Assembly districts and one state Senate district because no other candidates of another political party filed to run. Another five races will be efficiently decided in the primary, owing to large disparities in voter registration totals.
And according to initial results, at least four candidates backed by their respective legislative caucuses, including a caucus-backed candidate in a major state Senate district primary, were trailing challengers as of Wednesday morning.
Initial election results also showed Republican Assemblyman Chris Edwards in danger of losing his seat to Mesquite Councilwoman Annie Black. An incumbent losing in a legislative primary is relatively rare; only three incumbent legislators have lost their seats in a primary over the last two election cycles.
But the initial results posted on Wednesday may change; the state’s mostly-mail primary election, called in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, means that vote totals from mailed-in ballots will be updated daily until results must be certified on June 19.
In the 42-person Assembly, 21 candidates — including 14 Democrats and seven Republicans — are all but guaranteed to win in the general election, either because only one candidate has declared for the seat or because only one candidate from a party is running and that party has such an overwhelming voter registration advantage in the district it would be unlikely for another party to win it. After the primary election, 15 additional candidates are almost guaranteed to be headed to Carson City in February.
In the 21-person Senate, the fate of 16 seats was effectively sealed heading into Tuesday’s election, either because the office-holder isn’t up for re-election, other candidates declined to file or only one candidate from a party is running and the party has an overwhelming voter registration in the district.
Here’s a look at the status of major legislative races. The Nevada Independent will continue to update this story as new information is available.
State Senate District 7
Democratic Assemblywoman Ellen Spiegel holds a sizable lead over two other candidates in the primary race to represent this eastern Las Vegas and Henderson Senate district, which will be decided in the primary as no other Republicans filed to run.
As of Wednesday morning, Spiegel had secured 40.3 percent of the vote, followed by former state Democratic Party head Roberta Lange at 32.7 percent and Assemblyman Richard Carrillo with 27 percent. More than 4,000 votes have been cast as of Wednesday morning.
If Spiegel wins the race, it will represent a significant upset for the Nevada Senate Democratic Caucus, which had endorsed Lange. Spiegel significantly outraised both Lange and Carrillo in the race in the first quarter and had a massive war chest on hand.
Assembly District 2
Former Nevada Reatlors president Heidi Kasama is leading in this crowded Republican primary to replace termed-out Republican Assemblyman John Hambrick with 48.1 percent of the vote,as of Wednesday morning. Erik Sexton, who works in commercial real estate, trails with 23.3 percent of the vote, followed by Jim Small, a retired member of the U.S. Senior Executive Service, with 20.1 percent.
Kasama is running with the backing of the Assembly Republican Caucus, while Sexton was endorsed by Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore and former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. Small had the support of former congressional candidate and businessman Danny Tarkanian and conservative commentator Wayne Allyn Root, among others.
Kasama significantly outraised her opponents in the first quarter, and the Alliance for Property Protection Rights PAC, which is funded by the National Association of REALTORS Fund, inserted itself into the GOP primary in support of her bid.
On the Democratic side, Jennie Sherwood, a journeywoman electrician, holds a narrow, 4 percentage point lead over Radhika “RPK” Kunnel, a law school student and former cancer biology professor. As of Wednesday morning, Sherwood had secured 34.3 percent of the vote, Kunnel had 30.3 percent and Democrat Eva Littman, had 25 percent.
Republicans have a good shot of keeping control of this seat come November, given the 2.3 percentage point voter registration advantage they hold in this district. The Assembly Democratic Caucus did not endorse a candidate in the primary.
Assembly District 4
Former Assemblyman Richard McArthur holds a 9.7 percentage point lead over Donnie Gibson, the owner of both a construction and equipment rental company in the Republican primary in this northwest Las Vegas Assembly district. As of Wednesday morning, McArthur had 54.9 percent of the vote to Gibson’s 45.1 percent, or a lead of about 240 votes.
McArthur, a former FBI special agent, has served three non-consecutive terms in the Assembly, two terms between 2008 and 2012 and one term from 2016 to 2018. Gibson, a political newcomer, was endorsed by the Assembly Republican Caucus in the primary.
The winner of the Republican primary will go on to face Democratic Assemblywoman Connie Munk, who did not draw a primary challenger. She narrowly defeated McArthur in 2018 with a 120-vote margin out of nearly 30,000 votes cast.
Assembly District 16
Community activist Cecelia González is leading in this four-way Democratic primary to replace Democratic Assemblywoman Heidi Swank, who has represented the district since 2012 and opted not to run for re-election.
As of Wednesday morning, González had secured 47.5 percent of the vote, followed by Joe Sacco, a union trade show and conventions worker with IATSE Local 720 and a REALTOR, with 22.6 percent of the vote. Behind them is Russell Davis, a two-decade Clark County employee and SEIU member with 17.1 percent of the vote, and online finance professor Geoffrey VanderPal gained 12.7 percent of votes cast.
González and Davis had split the endorsement from major Democratic-aligned groups in the race. Both candidates were endorsed by the Nevada State AFL-CIO, while González was also endorsed by the Nevada State Education Association, the Culinary Union and the Nevada Conservation League, and Davis was endorsed by SEIU Local 110. The Assembly Democratic Caucus did not endorse in the primary.
The winner of the Democratic primary will likely go on to win the general election against the one Republican in the race, Reyna “Alex” Sajdak, because of the overwhelming voter registration advantage Democrats have in the district.
Assembly District 18
Lisa Ortega, a master arborist and owner of Great Basin Sage Consulting, is leading in this four-way Democratic primary to replace Assemblyman Richard Carrillo, who is running for state Senate.
As of Wednesday morning, Ortega lead with 42.1 percent of the vote, followed by Venicia Considine, an attorney with Legal Aid Center of Southern Nevada, with 36.5 percent of the vote and Char Frost, a former campaign manager and legislative staffer for Carrillo, with 14.8 percent of the vote.
If Ortega wins, it will be a significant upset over Considine, who was running not only with the backing of the Assembly Democratic Caucus but SEIU Local 1107, Nevada State Education Association, Planned Parenthood Votes Nevada, the Culinary Union and the Nevada Conservation League. Considine had also raised nearly one and a half times as much as Ortega during the first quarter of the year.
Assembly District 19
Assemblyman Chris Edwards may be heading for defeat as Mesquite City Councilwoman Annie Black leads by a substantial 15.5 percentage points in her Republican primary challenge against him. As of Wednesday morning, Black had 57.7 percent of the vote to Edwards’ 42.3 percent with more than 2,700 votes cast.
Black has been running to the right of the already conservative Edwards, who has served in the Assembly for three terms. A victory by Black would represent a significant upset in the race as the caucus has backed Edwards.
Whoever wins the primary will go on to win the general election in November, as there are no Democrats or third-party candidates in the race.
Assembly District 20
UNLV law professor David Orentlicher, who was running with the backing of the Assembly Democratic Caucus, is trailing Emily Smith, the CEO of the Nevada Blind Children’s Foundation, in the Democratic primary in this race to replace Assemblywoman Ellen Spiegel, who is running for state Senate.
As of Wednesday morning, Smith had 43.2 percent of the vote, while Orentlicher had 39.8 percent. Orentlicher raised about $5,000 in the first quarter of the year and had about $23,000 in cash on hand, while Smith raised only about $1,000 and had only $700 in the bank.
If Smith wins, it will be a significant upset over Orentlicher, who ran with the backing of almost all of the major Democratic-aligned organizations, including the Nevada State AFL-CIO, SEIU Local 1107, the Culinary Union, Planned Parenthood Votes Nevada, NARAL Pro-Choice Nevada and the Nevada Conservation League.
No Republican candidates filed to run in this Paradise-area seat, meaning the winner of the primary will be guaranteed a spot in the state Legislature.
Assembly District 21
Attorney Elaine Marzola appears set for victory after leading her lone primary opponent by 43.6 percentage points in this race to replace Assemblyman Ozzie Fumo, who is running for Nevada Supreme Court.
Marzola received most of the Democratic-aligned endorsement in the primary, including from the Assembly Democratic Caucus, the Nevada State AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood Votes Nevada, the Culinary Union and the Nevada Conservation League.
Her opponent, David Bagley, is the director of operations for the stem cell diagnostics company Pluripotent Diagnostics and was also Marianne Williamson’s Nevada state director for her presidential campaign last year. He ran with the support of the Nevada State Education Association.
Marzola has gained about 71.8 percent of votes cast as of Wednesday morning, with Bagley at 28.2 percent.
The winner of the primary will go on to face Republican Cherlyn Arrington in the general election, though Democrats hold a significant voter registration advantage in the district. Fumo defeated Arrington by 12.6 percentage points in 2018.
Assembly District 26
Republican Assemblywoman Lisa Krasner looks to have easily fended off a primary challenge from Dale Conner, obtaining more than 83.6 percent of the vote in the Republican primary for this Reno-area district.
No Democrats filed to run in this race, meaning that Krasner will return to Carson City in 2021 for her third term in the Assembly.
Assembly District 31
Former Assemblywoman Jill Dickman leads by 21.9 percentage points in a three-way Republican primary to represent this Sparks-area Assembly district. As of Wednesday morning, Dickman had 53.8 percent of the vote, followed by Washoe County Republican Party treasurer Sandra Linares with 31.9 percent of the vote and businessman David Espinosa with 14 percent of the vote.
Dickman is hoping to reclaim the seat she held for one term and lost by fewer than 50 votes to Democratic Assemblyman Skip Daly in 2016 and again in 2018. Daly did not face any primary challengers in the race.
Assembly District 36
Assemblyman Greg Hafen holds a narrow lead over challenger Dr. Joseph Bradley in the Republican primary in this rural Nevada Assembly district, which covers portions of Nye, Clark and Lincoln counties. Hafen was appointed to the seat after brothel owner Dennis Hof died weeks before the election but still won the seat.
Hafen, a fifth generation Nevadan and general manager of a Pahrump water utility company, had 52.6 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning, while Bradley had 47.4 percent.
The winner of the primary is essentially guaranteed to go on to win the general election as no Democrats or candidates from other parties filed to run for the seat.
Assembly District 37
Andy Matthews, former president of the Nevada Policy Research Institute, holds a significant 18.3 percentage point lead over former television reporter and congressional candidate Michelle Mortensen in the GOP primary in this swingy Summerlin Assembly district. As of Wednesday morning, Matthews had 47.1 percent of the vote, while Mortensen had 28.8 percent.
Matthews secured a long list of endorsements in the primary, including from former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, several Trump campaign officials including Corey Lewandowski, Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore and several current and former state lawmakers. He also was a top legislative fundraiser in the primary, outraising all other Republican Assembly candidates, including current office holders.
The winner of the primary will go on to challenge the incumbent, Democrat Shea Backus, who won the seat from Republican Assemblyman Jim Marchant by 135 votes in 2018. Democrats hold a narrow 2.2 percentage point voter registration advantage in the district, making it one of the swingiest Assembly seats this election cycle.
Assembly District 40
Former law enforcement officer and one-term Assemblyman P.K. O’Neill appears to be heading back to the Legislature after posting a 15 point percentage lead over his lone Republican primary opponent, attorney Day Williams.
O’Neill filed to run for the Carson City-area seat on the last day of filing, after incumbent Al Kramer announced he would not run again due to family reasons. O’Neill served one term in the Assembly between 2014 and 2016, but lost to Kramer amid a backlash against Republican candidates who supported former Gov. Brian Sandoval’s large K-12 focused tax increase in 2015.
O’Neill had 57.5 percent of the vote on Wednesday morning, with Williams at 42 percent of the vote.
If he wins the primary, O’Neill will likely face Democrat Sena Loyd in the general election. Loyd, a librarian running in a three-way Democratic primary, has a more than 20 percentage point advantage over her closest opponent.
Updated 6-10-20 at 6:52 p.m. to correct that Assembly District 20 is primarily in Paradise, not Henderson.
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