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Personal income drives positive revenue results - Vermont Biz

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by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Led by the Personal Income Tax, Administration Secretary Susanne Young today released the monthly tax revenue report, which showed General Fund and Education Fund results were better than anticipated, while the Transportation Fund fell short. The PI tax is the most important revenue source. Meanwhile, the Rooms & Meals tax, the third most important, suffered along with the hospitality industry.

Revenue collections through August 2020, the second month of fiscal year 2021, are compared to the current consensus revenue forecast for FY21 approved by the Vermont Emergency Board on August 12.

The FY21 consensus forecast was presented and approved a month later than normal due to the pandemic.

Additionally, due to the changes extending tax filing deadlines because of the pandemic, the revenues reported in this release reflect some tax receipts that would normally have been collected prior to fiscal year end June 30, 2020.

These taxes were collected on or before July 31st of the current fiscal year and are receipts referred to as “shift” revenues.

A total of $181.12 million in “shift” revenues were collected and used to develop the full FY21 budget now under consideration by the Legislature.

General Fund revenues for the month of August were $110.44 million versus the monthly target of $92.64 million, +$17.80 million or +19.21% above the consensus target.

The largest single above target performance was Personal Income Tax receipts, which were +$6.60 million or +8.60% above the monthly target of $76.77 million.

Not unexpectedly, Rooms & Meals tax collections for the month experienced a shortfall of -$0.57 million or -6.45% against the monthly target.

Year-to-date General Fund revenues, including shift revenues, were $406.83 million, $198.92 million or +95.7% above the consensus target of $207.91 million.

“Although the consensus forecast expected an increase in revenue due to the delay in filing deadlines, the revenues actually collected far exceeded that expectation,” noted Secretary Young. “Much of the positive performance can be associated with economic activity prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is not likely the General Fund will see increases over target of this magnitude in future months. We will remain attentive to the September and future month revenue performance without the benefit of the shift.”

The Transportation Fund, on the other hand had no significant FY20 revenue shift to FY21.

In fact, the overall reduction in both vehicle usage and new vehicle purchases during the pandemic continued to have a negative impact in August, most notably in Gas Tax collections and Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax.

Gas Tax was -$0.39 million or -6.33% under forecast and Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use was down by -$0.84 million or -14.79%.

In addition, Other Fees also underperformed by -$0.48 million or -27.12%. This underperformance was offset slightly by above target receipts in Diesel Fuel Tax and Motor Vehicle Fees by +$0.02 and +$0.07, respectively.

Overall, year-to-date Transportation Fund revenue totaled $40.47 million against the cumulative target of $42.09 million, a shortfall of -$1.62 million or -3.85%.

Education Fund collections totaled $47.35 million for August, versus the target of $40.02 million, +$7.33 million or +18.31%, driven by higher than expected Purchase & Use receipts. FY21 year-to-date Education Fund revenue of $99.68 million exceeded prior year to date totals by +$7.24 million.

Source: Administration 9.25.2020

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Personal income drives positive revenue results - Vermont Biz
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