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What Antibody Test Results Show Us - The New York Times

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Credit...Victor J. Blue for The New York Times

When it comes to the coronavirus, the ZIP code you live in may have made all the difference.

New York City released the results of about 1.5 million antibody tests this week, and they confirmed how deeply the virus affected lower-income communities. Results from wealthier neighborhoods tell a different story: No ZIP code below 96th Street in Manhattan had positive antibody results above 20 percent.

In a recent article, my colleague Joseph Goldstein wrote that these results provided insight on which neighborhoods were hit hardest, and whether some communities might have achieved herd immunity.

Here are five takeaways from that article:

Previous antibody data has been relatively limited. An April survey by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s office, which involved testing 28,419 people across the state, suggested that about 21 percent of New York City residents had antibodies to the coronavirus.

The new antibody data from the city included more than 15 percent of city residents, and showed that more than 27 percent of those tested were positive.

“This gives us a sense at a deeper level of the magnitude of the penetration of the infection into the population,” Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiology professor at Columbia University, told Mr. Goldstein.

The city has reached its lowest percentage of positive virus tests, 0.24 percent, since the pandemic began, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Wednesday. But Mr. Cuomo that same day said the figure was 0.8 percent.

Despite the discrepancy, both numbers indicate that the city has largely tamed the virus. Still, health experts are warning of a second wave, and much is unknown about the protection that coronavirus antibodies provide.

But there may be some good news for neighborhoods like Corona, Queens, that were ravaged by the virus in March and April: Some researchers are hopeful that herd immunity would require about half of the community to be immune.

In one ZIP code in Corona, 51.6 percent of people tested had antibodies.

The hardest-hit ZIP code in the city indeed belonged to Corona, which is home to many construction and restaurant workers who continued with their jobs through the height of the virus crisis. The neighborhood also has an especially high rate of household crowding, which may have contributed to greater rates of infection.

The tight-knit Hasidic Jewish community in Borough Park, Brooklyn, was also severely affected. The neighborhood, where larger households are also common, recorded the city’s second-highest rate of positive antibody tests.

More than 32 percent of children who were tested were positive, making those 17 and under the most likely age group to have antibodies.

However, children were the least likely age group to be tested for antibodies, so this data doesn’t add much insight on whether the city’s public schools should reopen.

Even though the scope of the city’s new data is broad, it has limitations. The New Yorkers who were included sought out testing themselves, so the participants were not from a random sample.

It also appeared that residents of neighborhoods with low infection rates, like some parts of Manhattan, sought out antibody testing more.


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The Mini Crossword: Here is today’s puzzle.


The New York Police Department has created a task force focused on hate crimes against Asians. [Gothamist]

Police officers on Long Island arrested a man who was accused of threatening to shoot at a Jewish children’s camp over a social distancing complaint. [New York Post]

Krispy Kreme is opening a store in Times Square with a doughnut-glazing waterfall. [Eater New York]


New York Today readers were recently invited to ask our reporters questions about the effects of the pandemic on city life. Katherine McGuinness, who lives in TriBeCa, wanted to learn about the impact on the already-struggling taxicab industry.

“I’ve lived in New York City for four years, and I miss the vibrancy and sounds of the city — a lot of which cabs supply,” she said. “I realized that I didn’t know how they were doing. Hailing a cab is an experience most New Yorkers can relate to, and one that always thrills me. As people remain out of their offices and close to home, it’s difficult to imagine getting in a cab for the foreseeable future.”

Brian Rosenthal, who last year published an exposé of predatory lending in the taxi medallion industry, weighed in:

“The coronavirus pandemic has devastated the New York City taxi industry,” he said. “Many drivers are in high-risk groups; dozens have died, and many have been unable to work.”

He continued: “Before the pandemic, about 11,500 yellow cabs operated on the city’s streets. A recent study by the city found that amid a collapse in business, that number dropped to about 2,200 in April, and it only climbed to about 3,000 by late June. Over all, ridership and revenues have fallen by nearly 90 percent.

“This all came at a time when the industry was already in crisis, especially for drivers who own medallions, the city permits that let them own their own cab. Many immigrant drivers were pushed into signing large loans to buy medallions that they could not afford. Before the pandemic, government officials had been discussing a bailout for medallion owners trapped in predatory loans, but that was put on hold when the virus began spreading.

“The only sliver of good news has been that lenders have not been forcing drivers to make loan payments during the pandemic, providing a bit of a reprieve as the industry hopes that it will be able to recover.”

It’s Thursday — be curious.


Dear Diary:

To the woman I fell onto on the 3 train that morning: I’m sorry, and I feel awful for the way things turned out.

You see, when I got on the train, I was in that awkward position of not being near a pole I could hold on to. The only thing I could do was press my palm to the subway ceiling and pray that I wouldn’t lose my footing.

In the end, as you know, I did lose it. I could tell by the look you gave me as you shook your head that you were very upset.

I didn’t say I was sorry at the time because I was in a particularly bad mood. I was tired, and I hadn’t gotten much sleep the night before. You had a right to be annoyed with me. Nobody wants a tall 16-year-old with a heavy backpack to tumble onto them on their way to work.

If you cannot accept my apology, I completely understand. If I had the opportunity to take that ride again, I would hold onto the ceiling with a tighter grip, and, if I lost my balance again, apologize in person.

I wish you a lifetime of peaceful commutes on the No. 3. I hope something like that never happens to you again.

Sincerely, the tall boy who fell onto you that morning.

— John Bloch


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