On paper, “Terminator: Dark Fate” seemed to have everything going for it. But instead of a being a sure-fire hit, the sixth installment of the Arnold Schwarzenegger franchise is, well, being terminated at the box office. Unless the film holds more strongly than expected in coming weeks, box office experts said the studio should expect to take a big loss on the theatrical release — between $70 million to as much as $100 million.
While pre-weekend projections were set around $40 million, “Terminator: Dark Fate” has only earned a domestic opening of $29 million and a global launch of $101.9 million, numbers that aren’t great for a film that cost $185 to make before marketing. And with this early pace set, it is likely that this box office run will finish in the red.
All of this comes as somewhat of a surprise, considering the original film’s core team of James Cameron, Linda Hamilton and Arnold Schwarzenegger were all involved, and “Deadpool” filmmaker Tim Miller was directing. While “Dark Fate” wasn’t expected to be a huge hit, reviews were better than those of past “Terminator” sequels with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes score. Combined with its aforementioned pedigree, it was expected to do better.
So what happened?
Also Read: 6 Major Ideas 'Terminator: Dark Fate' Copied From Previous 'Terminator' Movies
1) “Joker” is still going strong
“Joker,” despite its adult content, is still a major force at the box office with $14 million grossed in its fifth weekend. It has gained cross-demographic appeal that has pulled away potential moviegoers for other films, especially a film like “Terminator: Dark Fate” that relies so heavily on male Gen X audiences.
Now just $66 million away from becoming the first R-rated film to gross $1 billion worldwide, “‘Joker’ has become the must-see film of the fall, so much so that it is making it harder for other films that have come out since to gain traction,” comScore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told TheWrap. “It’s encroaching on the core audiences of completely different movies.”
Also Read: 'Terminator: Dark Fate' Wipes Out With $29 Million Box Office Opening
2) Is it too much like “Judgment Day”?
The general consensus within pop culture is that “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” was the last truly great “Terminator” movie. It was the last one in which Hamilton, Cameron and Schwarzenegger were all involved, and lines like “Hasta la vista, baby” that have given “Terminator” its cultural immortality.
But in its attempt to draw favorable comparisons to “T2,” did “Dark Fate” go too far? Even in positive reviews for the film, critics noted that “Dark Fate” copies a great deal of the narrative beats of its 1991 predecessor, including the subplot of Hamilton’s Sarah Connor learning to move past her mistrust of Schwarzenegger’s T-800 and learn to fight alongside him.
Combine that with other elements that the film lifted from past “Terminator” installments, and some moviegoers may have felt like “Dark Fate” was too much like a rehash to buy a ticket for, even if it was a well-received one.
Also Read: 'Terminator: Dark Fate' Film Review: Linda Hamilton Is Back, and So Is the Franchise's Mojo
3) Timeline confusion
While “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” has left a large pop culture footprint, it is a film that came out more than 25 years ago. For those who aren’t hardcore “Terminator” fans, the decision to again tinker with the series timeline after “Terminator: Genisys” already played with it may have been confusing. Even for those who understood this was a direct follow-up to “T2,” it may have been a long time since they saw that film.
“Blade Runner 2049” suffered that fate two years ago when it fell below box office expectations. One explanation suggested that many casual moviegoers were no longer familiar with the original 1982 film, leading them to stay away from theaters out of the belief they wouldn’t understand the plot without having seen the first film.
Also Read: 5 Reasons 'Blade Runner 2049' Failed to Boot Up at Box Office
4) What happened to [SPOILERS]?
For hardcore fans, on the other hand, there’s something that happens in the first five minutes of “Terminator: Dark Fate” that may have put off many of them. To discuss this, we’re going to get into spoilers, so consider this your warning if you haven’t seen “Dark Fate.”
Several months ago, “T2” star Edward Furlong confirmed that he would be returning as Sarah Connor’s son and future leader of the human resistance, John…but only for a very small role. This led some “Terminator” fans to fear that John Connor would be killed off in “Dark Fate”; and not only does that happen in the film’s opening scene, it comes at the hands of a T-800 played by Arnold Schwarzenegger that looks exactly like the one that protected and befriended John in “T2.”
Bringing back a beloved character just to immediately kill them off can alienate any fanbase. Getting rid of John Connor may have cost “Terminator: Dark Fate” support from devoted fans who are critical for any franchise to gain the word of mouth needed to build interest.
Also Read: 'Terminator: Dark Fate' - Let's Talk About What Happened With John Connor
5) “Terminator” may just be past its prime
Ultimately, after three poorly received sequels and a short-lived TV series, is “Terminator” past its expiration date with audiences, not just in the U.S., but globally? While Gen X and millennial audiences may be nostalgic for Arnold and “I’ll be back,” Generation Z has not grown up with “Terminator” the way it has with Marvel and “Star Wars.”
“There’s a certain point with a franchise where after several bad sequels, it no longer has good will from the audience even when it puts out good films again,” Dergarabedian explained. “It’s been so long since ‘Terminator’ had a film that everybody loved that much of the global moviegoing audience seems to have moved on.”
That’s not a good sign for Paramount, which is in great need of reliable tentpoles. While Tom Cruise has provided success with “Mission: Impossible” and will provide the studio with a boost in 2020 with “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Dark Fate” is the second big misfire for Paramount in the past month after “Gemini Man” flopped at the box office. Even “Transformers,” Paramount’s longtime moneymaker, wasn’t able to find new steam with the release of “Bumblebee” last winter.
After a 2018 in which the leadership of CEO Jim Gianopulos gave Paramount a much-needed surge in box office grosses, including two $150 million-plus domestic grossers, Paramount has yet to release a film this year that’s made over $100 million in North America. It’s a reminder that if this studio is to return to the success it enjoyed at the start of this decade, there’s still a long way to go.
30 Highest Grossing Animated Movies of All Time Worldwide
A look at top animated moneymakers as of September 2019, from "The Lion King" to "Zootopia." The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
Dreamworks Animation Studios30. "Kung Fu Panda" (2008)
Worldwide Gross: $631,744,560
The success of Jack Black's 2008 martial arts-meet-spongy mammal movie set into motion its inevitable -- and even more profitable -- sequel.
Pixar Animation Studios29. "The Incredibles" (2004)
Worldwide Gross: $633,019,734
In 2004, Brad Bird's first Pixar outing wowed audiences with complicated animated action scenes, cross-generational comedy and superhero mayhem.
28. "Sing" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $634,151,679
Illumination's animal-karaoke musical crooned its way onto the list.
Disney27. "Moana" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $643,331,111
Disney's Hawaii-set movie scored two Oscar nominations, for Best Animated Feature and Lin-Manuel Miranda's song "How Far I'll Go."
Disney Animation Studios26. "Big Hero 6" (2014)
Worldwide Gross: $657,818,612
Disney's 2014 robot tale combined anime aesthetics, superhero action and Pixar's heart.
Twentieth Century Fox25. "Ice Age: The Meltdown" (2006)
Worldwide Gross: $660,940,780
Fox's 2006 prehistoric romp proved the success of the first was no fluke.
Dreamworks Animation Studios24. "Kung Fu Panda 2" (2011)
Worldwide Gross: $665,692,281
With the franchise's skills proven, DreamWorks Animation gave the world another hit of comedy with this animated martial arts sequel in 2011.
Pixar Animation Studios23. "Up" (2009)
Worldwide Gross: $735,099,082
The 2009 fan favorite demonstrated that original ideas with big emotions could make big money.
Pixar Animation Studios22. "Monsters University" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $744,229,437
Ten years after the release of "Monsters Inc," Pixar sent fans back to school in a 2013 prequel.
Dreamworks Animation Studios21. "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" (2012)
Worldwide Gross: $746,921,274
DreamWorks Animation's "Madagascar" series kept the studio afloat with a string of breezy successes, including 2012's third installment.
Dreamworks Animation Studio20. "Shrek Forever After" (2010)
Worldwide Gross: $752,600,867
The big green ogre's final chapter dropped in 2010.
Dreamworks Animation Studio19. "Shrek the Third" (2007)
Worldwide Gross: $798,958,162
Made in 2007, this sequel proved there was still some gas left in this fantasy mash-up comedy franchise.
Disney/Pixar18. "Coco" (2017)
Worldwide Gross: $807,082,196
Directed by Lee Unkrich, this animated film captured everyone's hearts and even won the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature in 2018.
Disney/Pixar17. "Inside Out" (2015)
Worldwide Gross: $857,611,174
Disney Pixar hit the home run again with this animated feature film about the emotions inside your head, starring Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader.
16. "The Secret Life of Pets" (2016)
Worldwide Gross:$875,457,937
Universal/Illumination's story of dogs seeking out adventure while their owners are away charmed its way onto the list.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation15. "Ice Age: Continental Drift" (2012)
Worldwide Gross: $877,244,782
Profits abound for this 2012 fourth installment in the chilly prehistoric franchise, followed just behind it's predecessor.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation14."Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" (2009)
Worldwide Gross: $888,805,671
While other films have made bigger waves in the States, international sales have always returned big money for Fox's "Ice Age" franchise, proven again by the 2009 entry.
Dreamworks Animation Studio13. "Shrek 2" (2004)
Worldwide Gross: $919,838,758
DreamWorks Animation proved to be worthy Pixar competition with its successful "Shrek" franchise.
Pixar Studios12. "Finding Nemo" (2003)
Worldwide Gross: $940,335,536
"Finding Nemo" was something of a second-wind for Pixar, solidifying the company's place as the titans of modern animation.
Disney Animation Studios11. "The Lion King" (1994)
Worldwide Gross: $968,483,777
Can you feel the love tonight for this Disney animated classic?
Illumination Studios10. "Despicable Me 2" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $970,761,885
Illumination's sequel managed to make more money than its predecessor and put the upcoming "Minions" spin-off into motion.
Disney9. "Zootopia" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $1,023,784,195
Disney charmed audiences in 2016 with its cop thriller pairing a rookie rabbit cop and a wily fox informant.
Pixar8. "Finding Dory" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $1,028,570,889
The sequel to "Finding Nemo" swam right back into audience's hearts.
7. "Despicable Me 3" (2017)
Worldwide Gross: $1,034,799,409
Illumination's follow-up -- featuring Gru's blond-haired brother -- became the franchise's biggest grosser.
Disney6. "Toy Story 4" (2019)
Worldwide Gross: $1,061,928,660
Pixar Studios5. "Toy Story 3" (2010)
Worldwide Gross: $1,066,969,703
Built on Pixar's critical and commercial goodwill, the third installment in the mega-franchise brought in big profits.
Universal Pictures/Illumination Entertainment4. "Minions" (2015)
Worldwide Gross: $1,159,398,397
The little yellow helpers crossed the $1 billion mark at the end of August, raking in more money then "Despicable Me" and "Despicable Me 2" for Universal Pictures.
Disney/Pixar3. "Incredibles 2" (2018)
Worldwide Gross: $1,242,805,359
The superpowered family sprung back into action a full 14 years after the original -- but far surpassed the original film's box office haul.
Disney Animation Studios2. "Frozen" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $1,276,480,335
Disney's 2013 smash-hit takes the box office top spot. And then there was merchandising, video on demand and home video that audiences just couldn't let go...
Disney1. The Lion King (2019)
Worldwide Gross: $1,631,724,000
Whether the film is animated or live-action has been up for debate, the new "Lion King" was computer animated, so we're putting it on the list.
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