Over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski has posted an update to his ZiPS projections based on the first two to three weeks of the season, and his most notable observation is that the system gives the Royals an 8.1 percent chance to win the AL Central, and a 1-in-5 chance of making the postseason, when they started with a 2 percent chance at a division title and a 6 percent chance of playing into October via any route.
The White Sox, meanwhile, have basically made up for the loss of Eloy Jiménez with their performance relative to the Twins, who now project to finish three games behind the Sox:
| Projection | W-L | Div% | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before | 89-73 | 39.4% | 2 |
| Current | 90-72 | 56.6% | — |
The specific number attached to the White Sox isn’t worth fixation, just because the Sox have pissed advantages large and small the last couple times they’ve held them. The White Sox held the best chance of winning the AL Central in 2016 when they started the season 23-10, except then they immediately went 10-23 to negate the hot start and finished in fourth place by the end of it. Even last season, they had a 90-percent chance of winning the AL Central before the penultimate weekend, only to finish in third.
Nevertheless, these standings effectively take the glass-half-full approach to assessing the White Sox’s start. They’ve lost winnable games, but they have the division’s best run differential by far because of their ability to compete on both sides of the ball. The bullpen’s mediocre start might just be getting the burps out of its system, while the rotation is approaching its best-in-division form. They might be 1½ games behind the Royals, but there’s a three-game difference in extra innings alone (the White Sox are 0-2, while the Royals are 4-0). Cleveland’s loss on Thursday knocks them to 8-9, which means the White Sox have only played 13 of 18 games against teams .500 or better, rather than all of them, but strength of schedule still works in their favor.
And above everything, the Twins have dug themselves a hole with a wildly uneven 6-11 start. Byron Buxton looks like the MVP candidate Minnesota’s dreamed about, but the gains in center are offset by a COVID-19 outbreak and unrelated stumbles elsewhere.
The Royals, with their string of eerily reminiscent rallies, have the markings of a team that is maxing out its possibilities, while the White Sox are underperforming in a lot of key aspects and still hanging around .500. That said, the White Sox have to join the division’s other hopefuls in providing recent proof of finishing on the plus side of projections in a meaningful way. There are reasons to be encouraged, but the White Sox will have to reinforce that encouragement with hot stretches here and there along the way. This nine-game homestand against Texas, Detroit and Cleveland would be a fine place to start.
(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
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April 23, 2021 at 10:36PM
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First weeks of results alter shape of AL Central projections - Sox Machine
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